Thriving in Volatility - (A Vitality CFO Field Guide)

Predictability is a Sedative

Or: Why Management Teams Keep Buying Snake Oil

Management teams love predictability because it soothes anxieties and makes great slide decks. But it's a comforting illusion—like those fake thermostats in office buildings that give you the illusion of control while the system ignores you entirely. They convince you you're in control while reality plays out somewhere else.

Example:
"One former client cycled through three sales directors in four years. Each time targets were missed, heads rolled, but no one could see the drivers behind why the numbers were off in the first place. The issue wasn’t the forecast...it was the absence of visibility. Nobody understood what was driving performance, so blame became the strategy. Without clarity, every review turned personal. The numbers became a weapon, not a guide. Predictability was the comfort drug; visibility was the missing medicine."

Visibility is What You Really Need

Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Reality

Predictability tells you what should happen; visibility shows you what's actually happening. Visibility isn’t sexy, but it’s real-time knowledge that lets you act intelligently while everyone else panics.

Example:
"At a US based assembly client, when the China/Vietnam tariffs loomed, we didn’t predict outcomes. We ran scenarios about what various tariffs could do to the company if they happened. In almost every scenario, the company was facing putting up the "going out of business" sign and a long, meandering substack post from the founder/CEO about why he's back in the job market. We looked carefully at our inventory and suppliers, we saw an opportunity to use our cash reserves to buy 12 months more inventory. Our board struggled with this strategy, but were convinced that if tariffs came in, the risk to the company was fatal. They approved. Then the tariffs landed, and we became the only firm in our category who didn’t get crushed. And we had a very happy supplier who could stay in the game a little longer as well."

The Hard Truth About “Planning”

Or: When Everyone Has a Plan Until They Get Punched

Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Businesses don’t fail because they lack a plan, they fail because they worship it. Real strategy isn't your plan—it’s your ability to adjust the moment conditions shift.

Example:
"When a luxury travel company I worked with suddenly lost half their business, the management team froze, endlessly revising annual budgets and setting unreasonable targets nobody believed. We tossed their budget in the trash. Instead, we quickly redesigned their sales and operations workflow, finding gaps that had been invisible until we let go of faith-based planning and started seeing how to succeed again."

CFO as Truth-Teller (Not Number Cruncher)

Or: Why Good CFOs Have Terrible Job Security

The best CFOs deliver uncomfortable truths, kindly and directly. They're paid to challenge comforting myths like predictability and steady-state growth. They don't tell you what you want to hear; they tell you what's happening—even if it ruins your day.

Example:
"A healthtech startup I advised kept reporting excellent KPIs to investors. When I came in, I asked a simple question: ‘If everything's going so well, why is cash always tight?’ Nobody liked that question, but the answer helped us reset our model. There was rot below the surface. It wasn’t a popular move initially, but we also identified an opportunity as we addressed the problems. The next year, they had their first double-digit EBIT year (it didn't come from budget cuts!)."

An Invitation for the Realists

Or: If You Still Believe in Predictability, Let's Not Waste Each Other’s Time

If the idea of "visibility over predictability" makes your stomach churn, I'm not your guy. But if you're tired of the snake oil and ready to face uncertainty square-on, let's talk.

“Volatility is inevitable; ignorance is optional. Choose wisely.”